The Malian Government Opens Talks with JNIM Jihadists

Since early October, Mali’s ruling military junta has opened negotiations with Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM), an Al-Qaeda–linked militant coalition, in an effort to lift the fuel import blockade imposed by the group on September 3.

The blockade has primarily targeted fuel trucks coming from Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, effectively cutting off Mali’s vital fuel supply routes. As a landlocked country, Mali depends heavily on overland imports, leaving its fuel distribution network highly exposed to such disruptions. In less than two months, fuel prices have doubled, and shortages have severely strained both the government and the civilian population.

Attempts by the junta to secure fuel convoys with military escorts have had little effect, allowing only a few trucks through and failing to significantly weaken JNIM’s control. This highlights not only the failure of the government’s military strategy but also the ineffectiveness of Russian mercenaries from the Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group), who have proven unable to restore stability in the country.

Unable to ensure the resumption of fuel flows, the Malian authorities have now bowed to JNIM’s pressure and sent officials to negotiate directly with the group. While this decision responds to an urgent economic need, it risks empowering jihadists in the long term. By engaging in talks, the junta is effectively acknowledging both its political and military defeat and JNIM’s role as a legitimate negotiating counterpart.

The blockade, which allowed JNIM to profit from the sale of seized fuel, has demonstrated the group’s military effectiveness and territorial reach, which now extends beyond its traditional northern strongholds of Gao, Mopti, Timbuktu, and Kidal. The group has expanded its influence westward and southward, toward the borders with Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. This success is rooted in JNIM’s ability to maintain firm territorial control and garner local support by providing basic goods and services where the state is absent.

These developments, along with the implicit recognition granted through negotiations, bring JNIM closer to its overarching goal: establishing an Islamic emirate in Mali, mirroring the examples set by Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State in the Middle East.