The Libyan-Turkish memorandum and new turmoil in the Mediterranean area

On 3 October, Libya and Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding on hydrocarbons exploration in Libyan territorial waters and on its soil through joint Libyan-Turkish companies.

In a broader perspective, the cooperation deal follows a controversial agreement the President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan signed with the former Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj on the delimitation of maritime jurisdiction areas in the Mediterranean on 27 November 2019. With this move, Ankara tried, among the other things, to counter the unilateral activism of Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean. This country in fact already set its exclusive economic zone with some states such as Egypt and Israel in 2003 and 2010 respectively. As was the case of 2019 agreement, this new deal (re)sparkled the opposition of some regional and non-regional actors, in particular Egypt and Greece that immediately questioned the legitimacy of the deal.

Even though political turmoil is a likely scenario in those countries of the Mediterranean basin, the agreement has been defined as win-win for both actors. It is undoubtedly the Turkish case. The memorandum of understanding is a valuable strategic tool which will allow Turkey to assert its rights and maritime borders to some (and rather vast) areas of the Central Mediterranean. Certainly, the deal comes at a time when the war in Ukraine has seriously exacerbated the instability of the global energy market, that already suffered from enormous consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. If the Russia-Ukraine conflict has shed light on the Middle East and North Africa region’s dependence on Moscow and Kiev, especially in terms of corn and wheat imports, and made global prices spiked; on the other hand, it has also made urgent the need for viable energy altertnatives and therefore for oil- and gas-based sources. Potentially, the memorandum could not only mitigate the shortage of oil and gas in the long-term but also contribute to reap economic gains.

However, Libya’s security and political siuation remains fragile and dangerously unstable. The deal could in fact compromise the already precarious balance of power of a country which is experiencing a new phase of the civil conflict characterised by a significant involvement of international and regional actors, Turkey included. Considering the deal illegal and unacceptable, the Tobruk-based government led by the Prime Minister Fathi Bashagha sent a clear and further signal of friction with the government in Tripoli. The agreement could potentially lead to the resumption of violent fights between Libya’s two rival governments. Although the situation on the ground is extremely dynamic, the securitisation of Libyan soil and waters where the explorations will take place is, therefore, necessary and aimed at preventing the risk of oil disruptions and cuts as it happened in July 2022 where the militia headed by Khalifa Haftar stopped the oil production.