T-MED and the New Energy Geography of European De-risking
On 9 June, the European Commission launched the Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy and Clean-Tech Cooperation Initiative (T-MED), a flagship initiative under the Pact for the Mediterranean aimed at strengthening cooperation between the EU and its Southern Mediterranean partners in the deployment of renewable energy, hydrogen and electricity grids. The programme seeks to mobilise up to 25 billion euros by 2035, leveraging more than 5 billion euros in guarantees from the European Fund for Sustainable Development Plus. Its objectives include developing 15 GW of new renewable energy capacity and supporting the creation of more than 100,000 jobs in clean-energy sectors.
The initiative comes precisely when European energy security no longer concerns only the replacement of Russian fossil fuel supplies, but increasingly involves the construction of new industrial and infrastructural interdependencies. The MENA region has an estimated technical renewable energy potential of more than 2,300 GW, over twice the EU’s current installed capacity, while solar and wind generation costs can be 30-40% lower than the European average. If supported by adequate investment in electricity grids, cross-border interconnections and local industrial value chains, this cost differential could transform the Southern Mediterranean into a competitive platform for renewable electricity, green hydrogen and clean-tech components.
The central issue, however, is not merely the availability of renewable resources, but the capacity to convert them into bankable projects and infrastructure effectively integrated into energy markets. In this regard, the T-MED Investment Platform, expected to become operational in October 2026, should act as a coordination mechanism bringing together European institutions, international financial organisations, private investors and project developers. Its role will be to narrow the gap between the region’s renewable energy potential and its actual implementation capacity.
T-MED can also be interpreted as a further expression of the European strategy of energy and industrial de-risking. The EU is not simply seeking to import low-cost renewable energy. Rather, it aims to develop a geographically proximate production area capable of reducing concentrated dependencies on extra-regional suppliers, Chinese technologies and unstable fossil fuel markets. Cooperation on electrolysers, energy storage systems, photovoltaic components and smart grids could strengthen regional value chains, shorten some of the supply chains underpinning the energy transition and create industrial alternatives closer to the European economic area. Several structural challenges nevertheless remain regarding the implementation of a project of this scale and ambition. First, the 25 billion euros expected to be mobilised by 2035 represents a potential investment multiplier rather than a volume of funding sufficient, on its own, to meet the region’s energy and infrastructure requirements. Moreover, electricity demand along the Southern Mediterranean could increase by as much as 50% by 2035, driven by industrial and technological development as well as demographic growth. This may limit the share of electricity available for export to Europe over the short to medium term. Political and macroeconomic risks must also be considered, ranging from Tunisia’s fragility and Libya’s fragmentation to simmering tensions between Algeria and Morocco and the persistent instability affecting the Eastern Mediterranean.
From an infrastructure perspective, interconnections such as ELMED between Italy and Tunisia, high-voltage direct-current cables, smart grids, hydrogen corridors and port infrastructure represent essential steps in converting renewable energy potential into genuine market integration. Within this framework, Italy could assume a significant role, both because of its geographical position and because of the strategic outreach it has already initiated in the Mediterranean through the Mattei Plan.
If coordinated with the Global Gateway and the Team Europe approach, Italy’s position could contribute to the development of new energy routes between North Africa and Europe. This would enable Mediterranean countries to become not merely endpoints of the energy transition, but active contributors to the Union’s de-risking strategy. Such an outcome will, however, depend on T-MED’s ability to reconcile EU interests with local priorities, while generating industrial value, skilled employment and productive capacity within partner countries.